Predicted Marathon Time

I've been playing around with the FiveThirtyEight Predicted Marathon Time tool.

Using my 5k and half marathon PRs along with an assumption that I will be running about 40 miles per week, it says I will finish in 3:25:48. That's 48 seconds too slow to even qualify for Boston and about 3 minutes too slow to beat the cutoff.

I've got some work to do.

Baseline: 2 Mile Track Time Trial

I was really pumped up for the time trial. It was probably just nervous energy, but I was trying to talk myself into running 6:00/mile. I didn't really think I was in that kind of shape, but I wanted to be better than my last one. I ended up averaging 6:13, but I had a good negative split and probably could have pushed for a little more. Despite lots of injuries in the last year, I feel like I'm building a great base. I need a flat, fast 5k in good weather to hit my sub-20 goal.

The Goal: 3:22:51

The @BAA announced cut-off for registration into 2017 @boston marathon at 2:09 under qualifying standard. See more: https://t.co/6KNJ6QuGUL pic.twitter.com/68LT3QQQYh

— Boston Marathon (@bostonmarathon) September 28, 2016